Existing Scenario Data
USGS EOS land cover modeling data: [Conterminous United States] [250 meter pixel] [17 land-use and land-cover classes] [Annual raster maps] [1992-2100] [Scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, B2]
SLAMM[US] [1m] [more than 24 LULC classes] [Base Year, 2025, 2050, 2075,2100] [Scenarios: varied with different projects]
UWisc - Economic-based projections of future land-use [Conterminous United States] [250 meter pixel] [6 LULC classes] [Final raster map]  [Scenarios: Business-as-usual, No-farm subsidies, Afforestation, Increased urban rent]
International Futures [Global] [national statistics] [socioeconomic metrics] [user-defined time step] [2010-2100] [Scenarios: user-defined]
USEPA ICLUS Estimated Impervious Surface [Conterminous United States] [percent in 1 sqkm grid] [2 classes] [Decade] [2000-2100] [Scenarios: A1B, A2, B1, B2, BC]
Land Use Harmonization Data [Global] [fraction of 0.5 degree grid] [5 LULC classes] [Annual] [2005-2100] [Scenarios: RCP2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP6, RCP8.5]
Guides and Case Studies
[Guide] A summary of the lessons learnt from the VALMER scenario development process - VALMER
[Guide] McKenzie, E., et al. 2012. "Scenarios for InVEST: A Primer " Washington (DC): World Wildlife Fund .
[Guide] McKenzie, E., et al. "Developing scenarios to assess ecosystem service tradeoffs: Guidance and case studies for InVEST users." Washington (DC): World Wildlife Fund (2012).
[Guide] [Survey] Taylor-Powell, E. (1998). Questionnaire Design: Asking questions with a purpose. University of Wisconsin Extension.
[Guide] Sceanrio Development and Analysis - IEA training manual, UNEP
[Guide] JRC FOR-LEARN: Online Foresight Guide: Main methods
[Guide] [Tools] [REDD+] Lawlor, K., & Swan, S. (2014). Mainstreaming multiple benefits into subnational land-use planning.
InVEST Scenarios Case Study: Hawaii, USA
InVEST Scenarios Case Study: Coastal Belize
InVEST Scenarios Case Study: Borneo, Indonesia
InVEST Scenarios Case Study: Oregon, USA
InVEST Scenarios Case Study: Sumatra, Indonesia
InVEST Scenarios Case Study: Eastern Arc Mountains, Tanzania
InVEST Scenarios Case Study: Vancouver Island, Canada
Dinamica EGO applications
[Scenario Application] [Ecosystem Services] [US] Lawler, JJ, et al. 2014. Projected land-use change impacts on ecosystem services in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(20), 7492-7497.
[Case] Haines-Young, R., et al. 2011. "The UK NEA scenarios: development of storylines and analysis of outcomes." UK National Ecosystem Assessment, Technical Report. Cambridge: UNEPWCMC
[Expert Opinions] [Review] Genre, V., Kenny, G., Meyler, A., & Timmermann, A. (2013). Combining expert forecasts: Can anything beat the simple average?. International Journal of Forecasting, 29(1), 108-121.
[Expert Opinion] [Case] Stoll, Stefan, et al. "Assessment of ecosystem integrity and service gradients across Europe using the LTER Europe network." Ecological Modelling 295 (2015): 75-87.
[Expert Opinion] [Reivew] Jacobs, S., Burkhard, B., Van Daele, T., Staes, J., & Schneiders, A. (2015). ‘The Matrix Reloaded’: A review of expert knowledge use for mapping ecosystem services. Ecological Modelling, 295, 21-30.
[Expert Opinion] [Review] Krueger, T., Page, T., Hubacek, K., Smith, L., & Hiscock, K. 2012. The role of expert opinion in environmental modelling. Environmental Modelling & Software, 36, 4-18.
[Scenario] [Review] Brown, D., Delgado, A., Moss, R., & Sedano, F. (2015). Need and Options for Subnational Scale Land-Use and Land-Cover Scenarios for the United States.
[Scenario] [Review] Seppelt. et al. 2013. Identifying trade-offs between ecosystem services, land use, and biodiversity: a plea for combining scenario analysis and optimization on different spatial scales. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability,
[Qualitative Storyline] [Review] Rounsevell, M. D. A. and Metzger, M. J. (2010), Developing qualitative scenario storylines for environmental change assessment. WIREs Clim Change, 1: 606–619.
[Fuzzy Cognitive Map] [Case] Soler, Luciana S., et al. (2012). Using fuzzy cognitive maps to describe current system dynamics and develop land cover scenarios: a case study in the Brazilian Amazon. Journal of Land Use Science, 7(2), 149-175.
[Fuzzy Cognitive Map] [Review] Kok, K. 2009. The potential of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps for semi-quantitative scenario development, with an example from Brazil. Global Environmental Change, 19(1), 122-133.
[Stakeholder Engagement] [Review] Kelly, Rebecca A., et al. 2013. Selecting among five common modelling approaches for integrated environmental assessment and management. Environmental Modelling & Software, 47, 159-181.
[Stakeholder Engagement] [BN] [Case] Palomo. et al. 2011. Participatory scenario planning for protected areas management under the ecosystem services framework: the Doñana social-ecological system in southwestern Spain. Ecology and Society, 16(1), 23.
[SD - Vensim] [CLUE-S] [Case] A Coupled SD and CLUE-S Model for Exploring the Impact of Land Use Change on Ecosystem Service Value: A Case Study in Baoshan District, Shanghai, China
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